UK September ILO unemployment rate 5.0% vs 4.9% expected

Prior 4.8%Employment change -22k vs 0k expectedPrior 91kAverage weekly earnings +4.8% vs +5.0% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.0%Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.6% vs +4.6% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.7%October payrolls change -32kPrior -10; revised to -32kThat’s a soft report all around with October payrolls falling while the jobless rate runs up more than anticipated to the highest since March 2021. Even the wages data was a little softer at the balance and all of this put together might just prompt the BOE into taking action sooner rather than later. The only saving grace is that real earnings (vs CPI) is still on the softer side with total pay moving down from 0.9% to 0.7% in the three months to September in real terms.With the drop in payrolls in October, total payrolled employees in the UK now stand at 30,273,000. That’s the lowest since September 2023.The odds of a rate cut in December were around 61% before this but should go up lat